Since the beginning of time, man has pondered the great questions of the universe. Why are we here? What is our purpose? And what is the best way to evaluate quarterback play? Passer rating is usually a pretty good measurement but it falls short in some efficiency areas. ESPN’s ill-contrived total quarterback rating is just as bad as all of its terrible modern programming.

The general fan follows volume stats as gospel disregarding the number of varying factors that fall into today’s inflated figures. If quarterback ‘A’ throws for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, and quarterback ‘B’ throws for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, most would agree that quarterback ‘A’ was a better player. But if QB ‘A’ has double the number of attempts, his efficiency is not on par with QB ‘B’s percentages and his offense is not going to be as effective.

Touchdown percentage, interception percentage and yards per attempt are a far better barometer. There are going to be exceptions to any algorithm creation, but I’ve found that this one consistently churns out the most effective quarterbacks in the league.

What I have done, is taken those three stats and ranked all 32 teams majority snap taking, or most pertinent, quarterback from one to 32. For instance, in 2013, Nick Foles was first in TD%, INT% and yards per attempt. He scored a one in all three categories. Like golf, we’re looking for the lowest score. We know Nick Foles isn’t the best quarterback in the NFL but, in 2013, he was the most efficient and thus played better than anyone else.

The opposition would argue that, that makes this system bunk, but I would counter by showing Nick Foles 2014 and 2015 rankings as bringing the rule back to a median and highlight 2013 as an outlying exception in the case of Nick Foles.

Andy Dalton peaked up in 2015 and anyone would agree that he was nowhere near that level until this past season.

So what does this mean for Ryan Tannehill? Most reasonable observers would put him in the middle of the pack – or so I thought. The more podcasts I listen to and articles and message board posts I read, you would think this guy has played at a Geno Smith level when that isn’t even close to the truth.

This stat isn’t made for projecting. To do that, we’d have to look into influences like the better pass protection he’ll get with Laremy Tunsil unseating Dallas Thomas or the emergence of Devante Parker. Adam Gase’s influence will obviously be much greater than Joe Philbin or anyone on his staff ever had.

This stat simply measures what a quarterback was for that particular season. In 2015, this is how they stacked up:

2015

Rank	Player	Team	Total Points	TD % Rank	INT % Rank	YPA Rank
1	Wilson	SEA	12	2	6	4
2	Dalton	CIN	14	4	8	2
3	Brady	NE	15	5	1	9
4	Palmer	ARI	19	3	15	1
5	Taylor	BUF	23	13	5	5
6	Newton	Car	25	1	16	8
7	Brees	NO	27	14	7	6
8	Cousins	WSH	33	12	14	7
9	Smith	KC	39	21	4	14
10	Rodgers	GB	42	11	2	29
11	McCown	CLE	43	24	3	16
12	Stafford	DET	49	10	18	21
12	Cutler	CHI	49	20	19	10
14	Bortles	JAX	50	6	29	15
14	Mariota	TEN	50	15	24	11
14	Manning	NYG	50	7	21	22
14	Rivers	SD	50	19	13	19
17	Roethlisberger	PIT	51	18	30	3
17	Hoyer	HOU	51	16	9	24
20	Tannehill	MIA	52	22	12	18
21	Carr	OAK	53	8	20	25
22	Bridgewater	MIN	58	30	11	17
23	Winston	TB	61	23	26	12
24	Fitzpatrick	NYJ	61	9	25	27
25	Ryan	ATL	63	28	22	13
25	Osweiler	DEN	63	26	17	20
27	Kaepernick	SF	69	27	20	23
28	Bradford	PHI	75	25	23	26
29	Luck	IND	78	7	31	30
30	Flacco	BAL	84	29	27	28
31	Foles	STL	90	31	28	31
32	Dallas QB	DAL	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

 

This table tells me what I had suspected. The quarterbacks in that 12-20 range can be shuffled in those places from year to year. Just three ranks higher and he’s the 12^th highest rated quarterback in the league according to this method. That could be as simple as one more touchdown, one fewer interception and one tenth of a point in yards per pass average.

2014

Rank	Player	Team	Total Points	TD % Rank	INT % Rank	YPA Rank
1	Rodgers	GB	5	2	1	2
2	Romo	DAL	13	1	11	1
3	Roethlisberger	PIT	19	8	5	3
4	Manning	DEN	25	4	16	5
5	Brady	NE	28	5	6	17
5	Wilson	SEA	28	17	4	7
7	Palmer	ARI	29	13	3	13
7	Fitzpatrick	HOU	29	7	18	4
9	Luck	IND	30	3	19	8
10	Brees	NO	37	9	17	11
11	Ryan	ATL	38	15	13	1
12	Manning	NYG	39	10	15	14
13	Rivers	SD	42	6	24	12
14	Tannehill	MIA	45	14	7	24
14	Flacco	BAL	45	12	14	16
14	Smith	KC	45	23	2	20
17	Stafford	DET	50	24	8	18
17	Sanchez	PHI	50	16	28	6
19	Bridgewater	MIN	52	26	21	15
19	Kaepernick	SF	52	21	10	21
21	Hoyer	CLE	60	29	22	9
21	Orton	BUF	60	22	12	26
23	Cutler	CHI	61	11	23	27
24	Davis	STL	63	18	22	23
25	Newton	CAR	64	22	20	22
25	Carr	OAK	64	25	9	30
27	Dalton	CIN	65	20	26	19
28	Smith	NYJ	72	22	25	25
29	McCown	TB	85	28	29	28
30	Bortles	JAX	86	30	27	29
31	WSH QB	WSH	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
32	TEN QB	TEN	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

 

Easily the best year of Ryan Tannehill’s career, the interception number is really impressive. Bill Lazor’s offense was so meticulous and created such a low number of big plays that the 24^th ranking in yards per attempt kept him from being a top ten quarterback. This is another case of that 12-20 shuffling theory. Tannehill is ahead of the same guys that just barely eclipsed him in 2015.

2013

Rank	Player	Team	Total Points	TD % Rank	INT % Rank	YPA Rank
1	Foles	PHI	3	1	1	1
2	Manning	DEN	9	2	4	3
3	Brees	NO	17	4	7	6
4	Rodgers	GB	19	6	11	2
4	Rivers	SD	19	5	10	4
6	Wilson	SEA	21	3	13	5
7	Kaepernick	SF	27	12	8	7
8	Romo	DAL	29	7	9	13
9	Roethlisberger	PIT	37	13	14	10
10	Bradford	STL	40	10	3	27
11	Cutler	CHI	42	9	24	9
12	Newton	CAR	43	11	18	14
12	Smith	KC	43	16	2	25
14	Brady	NE	45	21	6	18
14	Dalton	CIN	45	8	25	12
16	Stafford	DET	47	14	22	11
16	Griffin	WSH	47	25	16	16
18	Luck	IND	49	22	5	22
18	Palmer	ARI	54	18	28	8
20	Ryan	ATL	56	20	17	19
21	Cassel	MIN	58	17	26	15
22	Glennon	TB	59	15	12	32
23	Tannehill	MIA	63	19	21	23
23	Fitzpatrick	TEN	63	23	23	17
25	Campbell	CLE	69	26	15	28
26	Manuel	BUF	74	24	20	30
27	Henne	JAX	79	31	19	29
28	Manning	NYG	80	27	32	21
29	Schaub	HOU	83	29	29	26
30	Smith	NYJ	81	30	31	20
31	Pryor	OAK	86	32	30	24
31	Flacco	BAL	86	28	27	31

 

This was a more consistently bad version of Ryan Tannehill. Ranking in the high teens/low 20’s across the board, he was not very good in his sophomore season.

 

Overview:

Clearly, Tannehill’s best trait is his propensity to protect the football. His interception rate is always his best score while his yards per attempt average perpetually knocks him down the quarterback ladder. The yards should come up slightly, but not a ton, because of the function of this offense. Adam Gase admitted this league is played within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and his best option, Jarvis Landry within a few yards of where he lines up.

The touchdown rate should climb significantly, however. We’ve already seen in the pre-season that Adam Gase is far superior at creating scoring opportunities once in the red zone than those he has succeeded in the big chair in Miami. That, and Devante Parker is the best red zone option Tannehill has ever played with.

I think the main thing these lists prove is a lot of volatility. Quarterbacks get so much credit and so much blame for how their teams play. I used to bet on games based on quarterback match-ups but I’m learning more and more that organizational stability and coaching are far more important than any player on the field.

Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t that great last year statistically. Landry Jones was able to come in and succeed when Big Ben was hurt.

The Dolphins are a dysfunctional organization that makes coaching hire blunders on the regular, fails to develop players, makes questionable roster decisions and whiffs on most of its draft picks.

The quarterback is not the issue. He is consistently in the average range of quarterbacks on these lists and does it with offensive lines held together by duct tape and coaching staffs that still think Dallas Thomas is a viable option to go near a football field.

If Bill O’Brien can get the vastly limited Brian Hoyer to play better than half the quarterbacks in the league, if Nick Foles can be the highest ranked quarterback in a season, if Ryan Fitzpatrick can find himself in the top ten, then there’s no reason Ryan Tannehill can’t do the same.

Hell, the Patriots won 11 games the year Tom Brady missed 15 games.

There are four or five quarterbacks in this league that will consistently take their team to the post-season and they are exceptional players, no doubt. Just because you don’t have one of those players doesn’t mean your quarterback must be immediately replaced.

It’s crazy how foggy Dolphins fans are in their recollection of how bad we used to have it. Where do you think Trent Green, Daunte Culpepper, AJ Feely, Sage Rosenfels, Cleo Lemon (the list goes on) would’ve ranked on these lists? Some organizations habitually have quarterbacks ranking in the bottom third.

That pathetic quarterback shuffle never even came close to seeing the Dolphins trot out the same starter for 64 consecutive games. Ryan Tannehill is sturdy, dependable, and reliable and has all the arm talent in the world and the desire to be great.

So when the Dolphins average 26 points per game and the quarterback finds himself near the top 10 on this list at the end of the year, remember how foolish you look asking for him to be replaced because the defense couldn’t hold up its end of the bargain.

Quarterbacks shoulder too much blame and inherit far too much credit. While very important, they are not as important as the league wants you to believe.

 

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